Hilton vs. Bianco: Who Should Win the Conservative Vote in California?

Election day here in California is officially one and a half weeks away, and the polls are looking tough for conservatives. Ever since Eric Swalwell exited the race, Democrats like Becerra and Steyer have gained support, while Republicans have struggled to stay in the running for top two. So, what is the strategy conservatives should take for this election? And between Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, who do I recommend gets your vote?

Governor’s Race Polling

I have been hearing one question repeatedly from conservatives: “Are you voting for Bianco or Hilton?” Today is the day I answer that question for you – as well as who YOU should vote for as well!

Where do the polls currently stand? Well, they are all over the place. Different pollsters are modeling turnout very differently, and that makes it incredibly confusing to accurately identify who is in the lead, and who is battling for the second-place spot. The hard part about polls is that they all make radically different assumptions about who actually votes in California primaries – such as whether younger voters show up, whether Republicans are unusually energized, whether turnout within specific communities rises or falls, whether late mail ballots skew left, and so on. All those assumptions matter enormously in California! A poll that emphasizes older or high-propensity voters is likely to help Hilton, whereas a polling model emphasizing younger, more progressive turnout helps Steyer and Porter. It all depends on who you’re asking, and when you’re asking them.

But, even in the confusion, there are patterns that can help us identify who the race is really between at this point. There are three main scenarios:

-        According to Emerson Polling, Becerra is in the lead at 19%, and Hilton and Steyer are tied for second place at 17%. Bianco is trailing in fourth with 11%, and everyone else falls at 10 and under.[1] That’s the first scenario: Becerra leading, and Hilton fighting to stay in it.

-        Now, CBS / YouGov tells a different story. Their poll earlier in May shows Hilton in the lead with 16%, Steyer in second with 15%, and Becerra in third at 13%.[2] This is wildly different! That’s the second scenario: Hilton comfortably making it past the primary, with the Democratic candidate still up in the air.

-        And then there’s the Democratic Party polling, which shows Becerra and Hilton both tied for first with 18%, and Steyer in a pretty distant third with 12%.[3] That’s the third scenario.

What we see in all these scenarios is that the order is different, it isn’t entirely clear who will make it past the primaries and by how much – YET, the same few candidates are consistently leading the group, ahead of the rest. It seems the race is between Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer, and the main confusion is which two of those three will advance to November.

While there may not be absolute clarity as to who is in the lead, this still provides us as conservatives with clarity about who to vote for. Historically, Republicans in California have been really good at losing; but we need to not lose this one. How? By consolidating support around the candidate likely to win. Who is that at this point? Hilton.

Bianco or Hilton?

Now, I want to be clear about this, because I know a lot of my listeners like Chad Bianco. I want to say this clearly: Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton are both truly wonderful gubernatorial candidates who would enact real change in our state. I was so excited when Bianco announced his candidacy – I even covered him last year framing him as the sheriff who could save California! Bianco is just as strong of a candidate as Hilton in terms of actual policies and experience. I cannot sing his praises enough – he has firsthand experience dealing with California’s public safety and homelessness crises rather than just talking about them. His message connects especially with voters who feel state leadership has become disconnected from everyday concerns around crime, affordability, and quality of life. He projects clarity and confidence, and he is not afraid to say what is true even when it is unpopular. On top of all of that, he advocates for policies that emphasize public safety, government accountability, reducing regulatory burden, and opposing policies he argues have made California less affordable and less functional for working families.

I really like Bianco. I don’t at all disagree with those who love him! But if we want to win, or we at least want to keep the possibility of a conservative governor open until the November election, then our voting decisions cannot be guided by emotions or preferences, they must be determined by pragmatism.

Here’s the hard truth: Chad Bianco just doesn’t have the polling numbers. He did at one point! There were a couple months this year where the top two frontrunners were Hilton and Bianco. That was so exciting! We talked about the possibility of locking the Democrats out of the general election entirely. But the numbers from a few months ago do not matter – all that matters is how things are looking now that votes are rolling in. We must be honest that as great as it would have been to have Hilton and Bianco both advance to November, that will not be the case. But there is a real possibility that if we do not rally enough support for the conservative candidate who is in the lead – for Hilton – that we will not have a conservative choice in November at all.

I would urge every conservative in California who has not yet voted in this primary to set aside their personal affections and affinities for certain candidates, and to instead vote to get the job done. As conservatives, we must keep the main goal in view: to move in a direction that will restore our state. It is not to get our favorite guy elected, it is not to rally around a specific person, it is to elect leadership who will make real change for the better – and while Bianco could do that, he is not the person set up to win. Which means he won’t be able to make that change, no matter how badly you may want him to.

Looking for a Savior

Is it wrong to like one candidate more than another? Absolutely not! Like I said, I like Bianco is great. But we have to fight against the idea that any one person will be, or is the only person who can be, the “Savior” of California. I’ve seen this rhetoric a lot recently – that Bianco is the only one who can save California. Or, alternatively, that Steven Hilton is the only one who can save us, and if we don’t elect him in this midterm, then all hope for California is truly lost! Both of those ideas are silly, and we shouldn’t give into them.

No political candidate is the Savior of our state. Even the best leaders who have completely changed things and turned the direction of their state or their country around are not the only ones who were equipped to do it. That’s because change is in the hands of the public, and it is the result of the hard work of many people accomplishing it. There are for sure better and worse candidates – people more equipped for the task, more able to win, better suited to office – but that doesn’t make them the Savior of anything. Chad Bianco is not our savior, Steven Hilton is not our savior – God alone is our Savior and King, and He may use a good governor as His instrument for restoring California, or He may not. It is dangerous to put our hope in a person, because people are not perfect and will surely fail us! It is also foolish because we do not understand God’s eternal plan – who are we to say that if California elects Xavier Becerra for Governor that all hope is lost for our state? When the very next election could bring new leaders, fresh policies, and push forward change even further?

I say all of this to encourage you – we have a great candidate who has a real chance to make it past the primary. We shouldn’t view Bianco as the savior and therefore refuse to vote for the person who is much closer in the polling to win a top two spot for the November election, and at the same time we shouldn’t view Hilton as the savior and therefore become discouraged at the potential that he might lose. What you are called to do is be faithful. Be faithful with your vote, vote for the best candidate who is also most likely to realistically win, and then trust in the God of the universe who has not forgotten California, and who is certainly able to continue reforming hearts and minds in our state for the long run.

But Hilton is British?

Now, there is one more issue I want to address, because I have also seen much discourse online centered on the fact that Steve Hilton is British. I have seen comments saying he is not trustworthy because he was not born in America, people saying he is not as much of an American citizen as Chad Bianco, and people disliking him solely because of his birthplace and accent. This too is foolish, and is not a wise or discerning reason to not vote for Hilton.

Steve Hilton became a naturalized United States citizen in 2021, and he frequently speak about how California has been an amazing home for his family since he moved here in 2012. He believes our state has all the fundamental ingredients to be the best place in the world to live, work, and start a business. To him, California is home and has been for over a decade. To say he is not as American simply because of where he was born is wrong.

This idea completely misses what America is supposed to represent. The United States has always been a nation built not only by those born here, but by people who chose this country – people who believed in its ideals strongly enough to build their lives here and become citizens. There is something deeply meaningful about someone voluntarily choosing America. Becoming a citizen is not automatic or taken for granted – it requires commitment, sacrifice, investment, and belief in the future of this country.

This has been cheapened by illegal immigration over the years, and I understand why conservatives may hear that and become slightly uncomfortable. We have had to fight to protect our borders, we have to continually justify why illegal immigration should not be encouraged en masse, why criminals should be deported, and why it isn’t racist to protect America’s values and heritage. I personally have talked again and again about why supporting illegal immigration is foolish, and why California should move away from being a sanctuary state.

But illegal immigration is not the same as legal immigration, and we should not confuse or conflate them. Someone who comes to America legally, follows the process, becomes a citizen, builds a life here, raises a family here, contributes to the country, and openly embraces America as their home is fundamentally different from someone who entered illegally while disregarding our laws and sovereignty. In fact, respecting legal immigration actually reinforces the importance of borders and citizenship, because it recognizes that becoming an American means something. It has value. It cost something.

If we as conservatives start treating legal immigrants as perpetual outsiders no matter how much they contribute or how deeply they love America, then we risk undermining one of the core ideas that has always made this country unique: that people from all over the world can become fully American when they embrace this nation, its laws, and its ideals. You do not have to abandon border security, national identity, or conservative principles to recognize that distinction. Defending legal immigration while opposing illegal immigration is the most logically consistent position possible.

We should champion, embrace, and support Steve Hilton, because he is doing just that! He wants to make our state, and our country, better! The real question should not be where he was born, but whether he loves this country, wants to fight for it, and is committed to making life better for the people who live here. Steve Hilton has made clear that he believes California is worth saving, and that conviction is far more important than his accent or birthplace.

Call to Action

So, if you have not yet voted, please: vote for Steve Hilton. Vote for him because California is at a crossroads, and conservatives cannot afford to waste this opportunity divided against ourselves. Splitting the vote may feel strategic or emotionally satisfying, but it will not change California. Winning will. 

Set aside personal loyalties and think bigger than one election cycle. Think about the future of California! Think about whether we want one-party rule to continue unchecked for another generation, or whether we are finally willing to unite behind the candidate with the clearest path to victory.

If conservatives come together now, this race is still winnable! But we need to consolidate support, so let’s get out there and do just that.

References:

[1] Mumford, Camille. “California 2026 Poll: Becerra Continues to Surge, Steyer and Hilton Compete for Second Spot.” Emerson Polling, May 13, 2026. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/california-2026-poll-becerra-continues-to-surge-steyer-and-hilton-compete-for-second-spot/.

[2] Sosa, Anabel. “New Poll Shows the Leading Candidates in the California Governor’s Race,” SF Gate, April 29, 2026, https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/california-poll-governor-race-debate-22230776.php.

[3] Mansour, Sara. “California Poll Shows Republican, Democrat Tied for First Time in Governor’s Race.” KCRA, May 5, 2026. https://www.kcra.com/article/california-poll-shows-democrat-republican-tied-for-first-time-in-governors-race/71209952.