Is California Safer than Red States?!

If you’ve been following the headlines lately, you’ve probably seen the claim that California’s crime rates are down, and our state is supposedly safer than Republican-led places like Tennessee or Arkansas. But if you live here, that may not match what you experience day to day. So, what’s the truth? Are crime rates really dropping in a meaningful way? And does Gavin Newsom’s leadership make California safer than it would be under a conservative governor?

Recent Claims About California’s Crime Rates

Let’s start by looking at the claims that have been circulating on social media, in the mainstream media, and on the news. 

First up are the claims being made by our Governor, Gavin Newsom. This has been a big topic of discussion on X lately, as well as in a couple different press conferences and interviews that Newsom has held. He has repeatedly emphasized that states like Louisiana and Mississippi, which are governed by Republicans, have homicide rates that are nearly four times higher than California’s. He also points to other red states such as Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri, which he claims have homicide rates double, or more, that of California.[1]

He's been hammering this point for the past few months in response to President Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to California. The Trump Administration has criticized California harshly for being a lawless state, with rampant crime in all its major cities, which we have seen worsen as protests and rallies in places like Los Angeles just this summer turned violent and resulted in arson and looting. The point that Newsom is making is that if the President is concerned about increasing crime, then he should look past California to other states – namely those governed by members of his own party – and deploy the National Guard to those areas instead.[2]

Then, outside of the claims made by Governor Newsom, the official crime data reported by California for 2023-2024 asserted that nearly every major crime category decreased. The California Department of Justice released statistics claiming that homicides were down by 12% and violent crime overall was down by 6% by the end of 2024.[3] Major cities also reported positive crime statistics, with Oakland reporting a 34% reduction in overall crime and Bakersfield reporting a 57% drop in homicides due to law enforcement initiatives.[4]

So ultimately, the point that Newsom and others in our government are trying to make is that while California is often perceived as crime-ridden and unsafe, that there is a gap between public perception and reality. The implication by Newsom is that his policies on crime aren’t as bad as some conservatives like our President make them out to be. After all, if you look at conservative-led states, then their crime rates in certain categories are even worse! So, should the rest of the country adopt the California model when it comes to crime?

No! Absolutely not. Let me break down a few reasons why.

Digging into the Data

The biggest point that Newsom is making is that the murder rate in certain conservatively governed states is higher than the murder rate in California, or even in California cities like Los Angeles. Let’s look at some of the main states he has specifically called out.

According to data compiled from CDC reporting – California’s most recently reported homicide rate is for 2023, which is the year I’ll be using for all comparison points, and it is a reported 5.1 per 100,000 people.[5] Governor Newsom has claimed that this is lower than several other states, so let’s just go through them. He’s called out…

-        First up is Texas. Texas has a reported homicide rate of 7.1 per 100,000 in 2023.[6] Now, the Governor’s office has reported that Texas’ homicide rate is 140% higher than California’s, but that’s the incorrect way to report the data. Texas’ homicide rate is higher, but only by 39%, so not quite as drastic as he is making it sound. You could say Texas’ rate is 139% of California’s rate, or 1.39 times California’s rate, but it isn’t 140% HIGHER than California’s rate. That would place it at 12.24, which is wildly inaccurate.

-        Next let’s look at Florida. Florida’s 2023 homicide rate was 6.5 per 100,000.[7] This is 27% higher than California, which again, is much different than the 130% metric Newsom is touting.

-        Then there’s Ohio, which had a homicide rate of 8 per 100,000 in 2023.[8] Governor Newsom reported this to be 160% higher than California, it is actually 57% higher.

-        For Tennessee, the homicide rate was 11.4,[9] which is 123% higher than California, not the reported 220% metric cited by Newsom.

-        For Arkansas, the homicide rate was 11.3,[10] so very similar to Tennessee. This is again 121% higher and not 220% higher as Newsom reported.

And on and on it goes. The main point is that Newsom’s reporting is pretty inflated, and the way he is reporting the data is overexaggerated for the sake of garnering attention, but nonetheless we should look honestly and admit here that for most of the states he is calling out, their homicide rates per capita are either slightly bigger or in some cases as much as double that of California’s.

So, putting Newsom’s exaggeration aside, the question still stands: why are these Republican-led states reporting homicide rates that are much higher than California’s, and does this mean that conservatives’ view on being “tough on crime” is actually faulty and we should therefore adopt California’s policies across the country?

The Truth Behind Red States’ Homicide Rates

One very important piece of context that is left out of this discussion, by Gavin Newsom and many others, is that while he is criticizing what he calls “red” states – those governed by Republicans – he fails to mention that the cities in those red states that contribute the most to the high overall homicide rate are actually Democratically-governed. Let me give you an example.

Take for instance, Tennessee. Tennessee is the classic example state that conservatives will use when talking about the exodus of people and families out of California. It has actually seen a rather lagre influx of California transplants in recent years, including the In-N-Out founding family, as we discussed last week. But Tenneessee has a homicide rate that is double what California’s is. Gavin Newsom’s conclusion then is that Tennessee’s governance is worse than California, and clearly conservative policies don’t help to prevent and deter crime – or else Tennessee’s homicide rate would be lower than ours.

But the two largest contributors to Tennessee’s homicide rate are its two largest cities: Nashville and Memphis. But in the case of Nashville, since 1963 every single mayor elected for the city has been affiliated with the Democrat party.[11] That means for the past 62 years, Nashville has been a city that is run on the same policies and platforms that Gavin Newsom aligns himself with. The city has adopted reduced prosecution and lenient sentencing[12] – something California is all too familiar with. It has also pursued bail reform – reducing the bail requirements for nonviolent offenses and encouraging repeat offenders.[13]

Similarly, Memphis has been predominantly governed by Democratic mayors who enact similar policies to that of Gavin Newsom.[14] Historically, the city had powerful Democratic political machines, notably led by E.H. Crump, known as "The Crump Machine," from the early to mid-20th century. Crump and his organization dominated Memphis politics for decades, strongly shaping the city's political landscape.[15] It has seen a significant increase in juvenile violent crime as the city’s policies emphasized rehabilitation and diversion rather than jail time for youth offenders. In fact, juvenile charges for violent acts rose 37% just between 2021 and 2023, leading many to question the effectiveness of the policies in place.[16] There has also been reporting of a backlog of rape kits and forensic evidence, which has hindered swift prosecution and deterrence.[17]

With all of that in mind, it is important to recognize that Memphis and Nashville together have contributed between 50% and 60% of Tennessee’s total homicides.[18] Memphis alone regularly accounts for more than 40% of the state’s murders, with Nashville typically contributing another 12–18% depending on the year. If you removed those two cities from the equation, then Tennessee’s homicide rate would be lower than California’s, and would actually represent the areas led by Republicans, as Newsom is trying to do.

And this isn’t just isolated to Tennessee. When you look at Florida, Jacksonville contributes the largest share of homicides, representing nearly 30% of the homicides factored into Florida’s overall rate. Jacksonville shows the same trend of Democrat-affiliation in its mayors. It had a brief period of more conservative leadership from 1993 to 2011, but both before then and since 2011 until now, the city has mostly elected Democrat candidates for mayor.[19] Similar to Tennessee, if you removed Jacksonville’s influence from the overall homicide rate, Florida’s homicide rate would be less than California’s.

If you go down the list of major cities contributing to the high homicide rates in these red states, you’ll see the trend is the same.

-        Arkansas is influenced by Little Rock, which is currently and has historically had a Democrat-affiliated mayor.

-        Louisiana is influenced by New Orleans, also a Democrat-run city.

-        Missouri has both St. Louis and Kansas City – both predominantly led by Democrats.

-        Even a state like Texas is heavily skewed by Houston and Dallas, both historically Democrat-led cities, with Dallas’ current mayor only recently switching his political party affiliation to Republican in 2023.

In fact, when you dig into the research you find that the majority – approximately 80-90% – of the top 10 U.S. cities with the highest violent crime and homicide rates over the last three decades have been governed by Democratic mayors, while Republican-led suburban and rural areas generally have lower violent crime rates.

Is Crime Inevitable in Big Cities?

I have just one more point to make on this topic, because I know what you’re thinking – these trends make sense because they all revolve around some of the bigger and more populous cities in these states. Going back to the Tennessee example, it may be natural to think that because Nashville and Memphis are two of the largest cities in Tennessee, then if they account for 60% of crime it’s probably because they account for the majority of Tennessee’s population.

Now, it is true that there is generally higher crime in more urban areas as opposed to rural areas. But Nashville and Memphis taken together actually only account for about 18 to 19% of Tennessee’s total population,[20] so while they are bigger cities, their crime rates are way higher in proportion to their share of the population. The same is true for Jacksonville, with the city accounting for about 4% of Florida’s total population,[21] yet making up 30% of the state’s homicides. So, it isn’t enough to just write it off as a problem of big cities that can’t be avoided or helped, and it isn’t quite accurate to say that crime rate – or in this case, homicide rate – is proportional to city size.

And so, this got to me wondering – are there any large cities where we see low homicide rates, even in a populous area – or is this truly just a big city problem? And would you believe me if I told you there is a prime example of a highly populated areas with LOW crime rates, even here in California? Well you should believe me, because that is the reality in Orange County!

Orange County has a similar population size to the city of Los Angeles – Orange County is home to around 3.1 million people[22] while LA has 3.7 million people[23] – but the homicide rates are vastly different. In Los Angeles city, the homicide rate is 8.4 per 100,000 people, while the homicide rate in Orange County is – get this – just 1.7 per the same metric.[24] That is an INSANE difference! Both are heavily populated areas, and they’re even in the same general area of southern California, but one is wildly more violent than the other.

What is the biggest difference between the two? Governance. Plain and simple. Orange County tends to have robust law enforcement with strong cooperation among multiple agencies, which helps to keep crime rates low. And everyone knows this! Orange County/Huntington Beach is known for being more conservative, in fact the Orange County Board of Supervisors has historically been one of the most Republican counties in the state, with only very recent shifts toward Democratic control.

In Huntington Beach, the city council is dominated entirely by Republicans, holding all seven city council seats after the 2024 elections. This group is even called the "MAGA-nificent 7" in reference to their strong conservative and pro-Trump stance.[25] Huntington Beach became a symbol of resistance to California's COVID-19 mandates and has taken local positions opposing state policies on housing, voter ID laws, and education/gender policies reflecting conservative priorities.[26] And in response to immigration issues, the city has declared itself a nonsanctuary city and supports federal immigration enforcement policies, aligning with conservative national Republican policies. They report homicide rates of just 0.02 per 100,000.[27]

Responding to Gavin Newsom

What exactly is my point? My point is that Gavin Newsom’s broad-sweeping allegations that conservative states are responsible for the highest homicide and violent crime rates across the country is lacking a lot of context and honesty. He is trying to make it seem like places governed by conservatives are actually less safe, and that the policies he supports in California – like Prop. 47 that was in place for nearly a decade here and reduced felonies to misdemeanors, or prison reforms to reduce the total prison population, or district attorneys who just let criminals walk freely without bail – he wants you to think that those policies are working based on the data he is presenting. He wants you to question whether tough on crime policies that are championed by conservatives, namely by President Trump, don’t actually work to reduce crime – after all, look at this list of conservative states with governors who tout tough on crime policies, see how high their homicide rates are compared to California!

But that fails to accurately represent the fact that governors do not have absolute control over every city in their jurisdiction, and even in Republican-governed states, there are still large cities with liberal mayors who have the authority to put in place the same weak and ineffectual crime policies that California puts into place. It is THESE cities, and policies like the ones in California, that actually contribute to the high homicide rates in red states, and it is these policies that need to be reformed.

California gets special attention on this issue because its governor agrees with the liberal governance of its major cities and is not working to effectively reduce crime, whereas in these other states governors are often working to ensure that tough on crime policies are in some way passed through onto cities to help reduce the crime problem. For example, in Florida, Governor DeSantis enacted multiple new criminal laws just this year – increasing penalties for fleeing law enforcement, swatting false reports, extreme speeding, and fentanyl distribution.[28] These laws are being enforced in places like Jacksonville with the hope of emphasizing accountability and public protection and improving the high homicide rates the city has continued to see over the years. Gavin Newsom on the other hand is not doing the same. We saw that he fought Proposition 36 last year, which overturned Prop. 47 and its horrendous effects on things like shoplifting and drug crime across the state – but then voters passed Prop. 36 with 70% approval!

As we see again and again, California’s leadership isn’t listening to voter concerns on crime. Leaders like our own governor aren’t willing to be honest about the rates of violent crime in our state and the liberal, soft-on-crime policies that have caused them in the first place. But, YOU are armed with the facts. Don’t be fooled and don’t be deceived by our Governor’s games and his dishonest reporting. Confidently dispute the lies that he sells as facts and believe your own eyes when you see that crime is NOT in fact getting better all around you under his governance.

 
References:

[1] Vazquez, Maegan. “Newsom: Crime Is a Larger Problem in GOP-led Areas Than Democrat-led Ones.” The Washington Post, August 28, 2025. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/08/28/newsom-trump-crime-red-states/.

[2] Heavey, Deirdre. “Newsom Deploys Crime Teams Statewide as White House Mocks ‘copying Trump Agenda.’” Fox News, August 29, 2025. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/newsom-deploys-crime-teams-statewide-white-house-mocks-copying-trump-agenda.

[3] Crofts-Pelayo, Diana. “ICYMI: California’s Homicide, Violent Crime Rates Down Amid Trump’s Continued Assault on States Nationwide | Governor of California,” Governor of California, August 15, 2025, https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/08/12/icymi-californias-homicide-violent-crime-rates-down-amid-trumps-continued-assault-on-states-nationwide/.

[4] Daniel Villasenor, “Governor Newsom Deploys New Teams to Fight Crime in Major California Cities, Building on Existing Successful Efforts | Governor of California,” Governor of California, August 28, 2025, https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/08/28/governor-newsom-deploys-new-teams-to-fight-crime-in-major-california-cities-building-on-existing-successful-efforts/.

[5] Stats of the States. “Homicide Mortality,” August 20, 2025. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/state-stats/deaths/homicide.html.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Ibid.

[8] Ibid.

[9] Ibid.

[10] Ibid.

[11] Ballotpedia. “Mayoral Election in Nashville, Tennessee (2023) - Ballotpedia,” n.d. https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_Nashville,_Tennessee_(2023).

[12] U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee. “Crime,” n.d. https://www.blackburn.senate.gov/crime.

[13] Ferrier, Dennis. “New Tennessee Laws Aim to End Cycle of Repeat Offenders With Low Bonds.” WZTV, May 21, 2024. https://fox17.com/fox-17-investigates/new-tennessee-laws-aim-to-end-cycle-of-repeat-offenders-with-low-bonds-nashville-crime.

[14] Ballotpedia. “Memphis, Tennessee - Ballotpedia,” n.d. https://ballotpedia.org/Memphis,_Tennessee.

[15] Ben Hooks Institute  - the University of Memphis. “The Crump Era,” n.d. https://www.memphis.edu/benhooks/mapping-civil-rights/crump-era.php.

[16] “Crime,” U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee.

[17] Ibid.

[18] Michael Lloyd, “Tennessee Crime Rate in 2025 - a Closer Look at the Numbers,” Freedom For All Americans (blog), February 12, 2025, https://freedomforallamericans.org/tennessee-crime-rate/.

[19] Wills, Tom, and Steve Patrick. “Former Mayors Remember Their Years in Jacksonville’s Old City Hall.” WJXT, January 14, 2019. https://www.news4jax.com/news/2019/01/19/former-mayors-remember-their-years-in-jacksonvilles-old-city-hall/.

[20] Carney, Kristen. “Tennessee Cities by Population (2025),” June 20, 2024. https://www.tennessee-demographics.com/cities_by_population.

[21] Carney, Kristen. “Florida Cities by Population (2025),” June 20, 2024. https://www.florida-demographics.com/cities_by_population.

[22] World Population Review. “Orange County, California Population 2025,” n.d. https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/california/orange-county.

[23] World Population Review. “Los Angeles, California  Population 2025,” n.d. https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/california/los-angeles.

[24] Regardie, Jon. “How Murders in Los Angeles Compare With the Rest of California.” Crosstown, July 16, 2024. https://xtown.la/2024/07/16/how-murders-in-los-angeles-compare-with-the-rest-of-california/.

[25] Regimbal, Alec. “‘MAGA-nificent 7’: Republicans Fill Every Seat on California City Council.” SF Gate, December 9, 2024. https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/gop-supermajority-now-controls-huntington-beach-19970158.php.

[26] The New York Times. “In Huntington Beach, Politics on a Plaque,” February 24, 2025. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/us/huntington-beach-maga-plaque.html.

[27] Schiller, Andrew. “Huntington Beach, CA Crime Rates.” NeighborhoodScout, April 4, 2025. https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/huntington-beach/crime.

[28] Bonamo, Philip. “New Criminal Laws of Florida 2025.” Rice Law Firm, June 27, 2025. https://www.ricelawflorida.com/new-criminal-laws-of-florida-2025/.