Prop. 50 Passes – What’s Next?
Proposition 50 – the topic of last week’s special election – passed with overwhelming support from California voters. What exactly does this mean for our state and the conservatives living in it? Plus, how do we move forward from such a devastating loss? Is California truly still worth fighting for?
Prop. 50 Results & What It Means for Californians
The results of last week’s special election rolled in very quickly on Tuesday night, demonstrating an overwhelming win for Gavin Newsom and California Democrats with the passage of Proposition 50. It was approved by a 63-36 vote,[1] with just 42% of registered voters showing up to the polls.[2] There was large support for the proposition in southern California specifically, with 74% of Los Angeles County and 54% of Orange County voting yes. Northern California saw sweeping numbers against Prop. 50, with 79% of Lassen County and 78% in Modoc County voting no.[3]
And while we are talking about voter turnout, probably the most disappointing result of the election is that voter turnout from the Democrat Party exceeded voter turnout from the Republican Party. Forty-five percent of registered Democrats voted in the special election, while only 42% of registered Republicans voted – meaning there were over 3 million registered Republicans who did not show up to vote against Proposition 50.[4] This is especially upsetting when you consider that Proposition 50 passed by 2.7 million votes[5] – meaning that if more Republicans and Independents had turned out to vote, we could have defeated the measure.
So, what exactly does this mean for California? In short, new district lines will be drawn, and these lines will make it harder for Republicans to win seats in the US House of Representatives, and easier for Democrats to keep their seats. Five Republican congressmembers are now facing steep re-election odds. Some of these changes are so insanely drastic, it’s hard to believe how districts will be completely gutted.
Kevin Kiley is an outspoken voice for California’s 3rd district. This district will change quite a bit, shifting more liberal, and Ami Bera, who is the current Democrat representative for the 6th district, will now run against Kiley in the 3rd district.[6] In the 2024 election, Trump won this district by 4%, but after redistricting, it changes so that Kamala Harris likely would have won by 8%.[7] That’s a 12% shift toward the Democrat party.
Doug LaMalfa’s district, District 1, in the northeast corner of the state is losing several conservative counties and gaining Santa Rosa, which leans blue.[8] In the 2024 election, Trump won this district by a whopping 25%, but after redistricting, it changes so that Kamala Harris likely would have won by 25%.[9] Can you believe that?! That’s a 50% shift toward the Democrat party!
Ken Calvert, from Corona, will basically lose his district, District 41, completely.[10] This will likely pit him against another Republican and hand over his former territory to a Democrat. This represents a 14% shift toward Democrats.
David Valadao’s Central Valley district 22 shifts just slightly more Democratic and estimated 4%. It will still be competitive, but tougher for conservatives.[11]
And Darrell Issa’s district 48 in San Diego County loses conservative areas and gains liberal voters from the Coachella Valley.[12] Trump won this district by 15% in 2024, and after redistricting, Harris likely would have won by 18%.[13] Another huge shift, at 33% toward the Democrat party.
Meanwhile, Democrats are sitting pretty. Five Democratic incumbents just got much safer districts. Josh Harder’s Stockton seat shifted bluer. Adam Gray’s district picked up more Democratic voters from Stockton, after having the closest House race in the country last year. George Whitesides now represents a bluer version of the northern L.A. suburbs. Derek Tran’s Orange–L.A. County district is more solidly Democratic. And Dave Min, who barely won in Costa Mesa, just shifted away from Huntington Beach and Newport Beach – both Republican strongholds.
The bottom line is that Prop 50 just redrew California’s political map to favor Democrats, leaving several Republican incumbents scrambling to survive, and setting the stage for some very interesting races next year.
Notes of Encouragement
If I’m being completely honest, the results of Proposition 50 are downright disappointing. It is incredibly discouraging not just to lose an election, but to be able to see the immediate effects losing will have and how much harder it will make it for conservative voters – in what already feels like an impossible state to be a Republican. But we have to caveat these results with a few reminders so that we are encouraged to continue fighting for California as we head into the midterms next year.
The first reminder for you is that special elections often yield very low voter turnout. They’ve actually been fairly rare in our state in the past. The last special election was the effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom in 2025, and voter turnout for that election was the highest it’s ever been for a special election, at 58%. But before that, the most recent special election was in 2009 with voter turnout of 28%.[14] So, voter turnout for this election at 41% is pretty typical and was to be expected.
Why is voter turnout so low? There are usually a few reasons. For one, special elections are held in off cycles on short notice. That was exactly the case with Prop. 50. Remember that Gavin Newsom authorized and announced this election in late August of this year.[15] Voters typically need months of exposure through news coverage, ads, and ballot guides to even know an election is happening. By calling it in late August, the state left less than 70 days for counties to print ballots, run outreach, and for campaigns to mobilize. That compressed schedule meant that most voters only started hearing about Prop. 50 a few weeks before ballots arrived in October. This is on top of the fact that special elections usually have fewer resources, less advertising, less organized mobilization or fewer “get-out-the-vote” efforts, just adding to why turnout tends to drop. Add to that a short timeframe and it’s nearly impossible to rally the troops to show up to the polls.
There is also the consideration that if voters feel that the outcome won’t affect them much, or that their vote doesn’t really matter, they’re less motivated to vote. Redistricting isn’t a flashy issue. A lot of people don’t think or care much about districting, that is if they know about it at all. Even though Prop. 50 will literally change who represents them in Congress, most people won’t realize how directly it affects them.
Then there is the issue of voter fatigue. After a packed 2024 presidential cycle, and a contentious upcoming 2026 midterm, voters are simply burned out. For many Californians, another ballot in November, especially one with just one proposition, feels easy to skip – especially if they don’t know where they stand on it.
But the main reason I think Prop. 50 was such a blowout victory is because it was super easy messaging for Democrats. The call to vote for them was basically “if you hate Trump, vote yes on Prop. 50.” That’s it. They didn’t have to explain redistricting, they didn’t have to get into the weeds about maps or districts or commissions – they just tied it to emotion. The people who showed up were mostly highly motivated Democrats who felt like this was their chance to push back on Trump and protect California’s blue wall.
When a party has just won the presidency, as is the case with Trump, that party is now in power and becomes the target of voter backlash or at least heightened scrutiny. This “in power” status creates vulnerabilities.[16] Voters often treat the next significant election as a kind of referendum on the new administration: “Are we happy with this new direction or not?” – even if the election isn’t directly about the president. Those dynamics favor the opposition or the party not in the White House.
In the context of Prop. 50, Democrats were better positioned to frame the election as “a check” or “response” to the Trump Administration – who California has railed against on issues like immigration, tariffs, and the mobilization of the national guard. That dynamic made all the difference.
The reason all these points are encouraging for us is because they are not the case for every election – meaning that Proposition 50 doesn’t have to be a red flag against conservatives making gains across the state for a Republican run for Governor. Voters are still dissatisfied with the cost of living in California, with crime and homelessness in California, with housing prices in California, and so much more. Those frustrations haven’t gone anywhere. In fact, they’ve only grown. And that’s important, because it means the underlying mood in California is not purely partisan – it’s fed up. Voters might have supported Prop. 50 as a way to push back on Trump, but when it comes to everyday life – paying rent, feeling safe, affording groceries – those frustrations cut across party lines.
This is where the opportunity lies for conservatives. If Republicans can connect with that frustration and focus on real solutions instead of national political fights, they could absolutely gain ground here –especially in a gubernatorial race where the issues hit closer to home.
And, even on the topic of redistricting, I think Representative Kevin Kiley put it best when he said, “Politicians can change the lines on a map, but they can’t tell you how to vote.”[17] Sure, Democrats may try to use redistricting to give themselves an edge, and for a while, it might look like the map favors them. But political winds shift fast when people’s lives don’t get better. If voters are still struggling to afford groceries, if they’re still seeing tents line their neighborhoods, if their taxes keep going up – those frustrations don’t stop at a district line. So even if some of these new districts look “bluer” on paper, that doesn’t mean they’ll stay that way. California voters have proven in recent polls that when things stop working, they’re open to change. Redistricting can change the boundaries, but it can’t change reality – and reality is what ultimately drives people to the polls.
The Call to Faithfulness
Here’s the thing: being a conservative in a majority liberal state like California is hard. It often means losing. Losing because fellow conservatives lose faith in their vote and don’t show up to elections. Losing because there are so many battles happening we can’t keep up on each front. Losing simply because we do not have the majority opinion. But our decision to press on – our decision to speak truth, to share our values, to fight to see them protected and represented, and to change our state for the better – that decision is not contingent on winning or losing. That decision, that fight, is rooted in what we know is right.
This means that win or lose, there is no other option. As long as I live in California, I will fight for the freedoms guaranteed to me and others in the constitution, like freedom of speech, religion, and to bear arms. Why? Because America is a country – and these are freedoms – worth fighting for. As long as I live in California, I will push back and vote against liberal ideology that strips parents of their inherit rights, kills babies in the womb and raises children to see themselves as victims in an oppressive society. Why? Because the Bible says these things are wrong, no matter if the majority around me says they are right. As long as I live in California I will continue to engage in politics, no matter the number of elections lost or the odds of getting my way. Why? Because my conscience, my testimony, and my personal integrity is not defined by the choices of others, they are defined by my choices. Which means that I am responsible not for the outcome of each election, but for the part I played. We are each responsible for our individual faithfulness with the circumstances and influence we have been given.
And even if in my lifetime I never again see a Republican Governor in California – none of this will have been effort wasted, because even if I can’t influence my state, I can influence my community, my church, my family, and myself. I know that in all of it, I ultimately stand responsible before the Lord, and He sees every word I say, every way that I use my time, every effort to stand up for what He has declared is good and true, and He uses every small act of faithfulness for the greater plan of His glory. Who am I to say that my efforts are pointless, when the God of the universe promises that He sees me, loves me, and uses me for all He has planned? How could I give into hopelessness, despair, and fatalism, when I serve a God who sets princes on their thrones and tears them down? I bow to a God who is greater than politics, greater than California, and greater than Gavin Newsom – and He could change the course of our state and our country in an instant. All that I do – on this podcast each week and in my personal life when it comes to politics – all of it is to be found faithful. There is no election result so discouraging that could pull me away from that higher calling.
So, we do our best, we vote for what we know is right, and then if the results are not what we hoped for, we continue on. There are groceries to buy, families to feed, jobs to show up for, churches to serve, and yes, hearts and minds to be changed. Live small. Focus on the people right around you, in the sphere God has given you. And choose faithfulness each and every day, win or lose, trusting your faithfulness is used for a purpose much greater than you see right now.
References:
[1] Anguiano, Dani. “What Does Prop 50’s Passage Mean for California, Gavin Newsom and the US?” The Guardian, November 5, 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/05/california-proposition-50-explainer.
[2] California Secretary of State. “California Statewide Special Election Results.” Election Results, November 7, 2025. https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/voter-turnout.
[3] Lloyd, Jonathan. “How California Voted on Prop 50. See County-by-county Results.” NBC Los Angeles, November 5, 2025. https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/politics/california-prop-50-county-election-results/3801340/.
[4] Cole Patterson (@ColePattersonCA), “Over 9 million ballots have now been returned on our tracker. That’s roughly 700k more than what the SOS is currently reporting as counted so far,” X, November 6, 2025, 12:06PM, https://x.com/ColePattersonCA/status/1986525646680694815.
[5] NBC News. “California Ballot Measures Special Results 2025,” November 8, 2025. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2025-special-elections/california-ballot-measures.
[6] Kuang, Jeanne, and Maya C. Miller. “Proposition 50 Passed in California. Here’s What You Missed.” CalMatters, November 5, 2025. https://calmatters.org/politics/2025/11/proposition-50-overnight-results/.
[7] Lloyd, Jonathan. “How California Voted on Prop 50. See County-by-county Results,” NBC Los Angeles, November 5, 2025, https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/politics/california-prop-50-county-election-results/3801340/.
[8] Kuang and Miller, “Proposition 50 Passed in California. Here’s What You Missed.”
[9] Lloyd, “How California Voted on Prop 50. See County-by-County Results,” November 5, 2025.
[10] Kuang and Miller, “Proposition 50 Passed in California. Here’s What You Missed.”
[11] Kuang and Miller, “Proposition 50 Passed in California. Here’s What You Missed.”
[12] Lloyd, “How California Voted on Prop 50. See County-by-County Results,” November 5, 2025.
[13] Ibid.
[14] California Secretary of State, “California Statewide Special Election Results.”
[15] Governor Gavin Newsom, “Governor Newsom Signs ‘Election Rigging Response Act’ Legislative Package; Gives People Power to Push Back on Trump’s Attempts to Shred Democracy | Governor of California,” Governor of California, August 28, 2025, https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/08/21/governor-newsom-signs-election-rigging-response-act-legislative-package-gives-people-power-to-push-back-on-trumps-attempts-to-shred-democracy/.
[16] Southern Political Science Association, and Robert S. Erikson. “The Puzzle of Midterm Loss.” The Journal of Politics. Vol. 50–50. Cambridge University Press, November 1988. https://www.uvm.edu/~dguber/POLS125/articles/erikson1.pdf
[17] Kuang and Miller, “Proposition 50 Passed in California. Here’s What You Missed.”
