Republicans Now Leading California’s Governor Race?!
Over the last few weeks, multiple polls have shown something no one expected — rising voter sentiment for conservatives over Democrats, and even a Republican candidate taking first place in California’s race for Governor. Could this be the start of a red wave in 2026? And is it actually possible that, for the first time since 2011, California could elect a Republican Governor? I’m breaking down what these numbers really mean – and whether they point to a political shift in the Golden State.
A Republican California Governor?
Last week, we looked at the controversies surrounding Democrat candidate Katie Porter – from her viral interview walkout to the behind-the-scenes footage of her yelling at staff. Since those clips surfaced, her polling position has dropped, with some even calling for her to drop out.[1] She’s apologized,[2] but the damage is done, and it’s reshaped the conversation around the Governor’s race as voters start looking elsewhere for leadership.
Now, here’s the good news: the trends are looking up in favor of conservatives! There are several new polls out this year, both specific to the governor’s race, as well as to overall voter sentiment and registration, that we cannot ignore.
The most shocking poll came out in early September. Among likely California voters, when campaign messaging was factored in (meaning the actual policies candidates are running on), Republican Steve Hilton came out on top.[3] Isn’t that insane? The current frontrunner for California Governor is a Republican! Hilton leads with 29% of the vote, followed by Democrat Katie Porter at 23%, and Republican Chad Bianco in third.[4] Two of the top three candidates are Republicans – something we haven’t seen in California in years.
Obviously it is still early, and there is a long way to go to continue building support, but just the fact that two out of three of the top candidates are Republicans tells us something about the minds of voters here in California, and just how different this race feels than previous elections.
But before getting deeper into that, who exactly is Steve Hilton? I want to do a quick flyover of who he is and what he stands for so that we can understand what’s going on here. Hilton’s parents were refugees from Hungary who fled to the UK. He was born there, he studied at Oxford, and he became the Director of Strategy for the Conservative Party under the former British Prime Minister. He moved to the United States in 2012 to start a political tech startup, he started hosting a show on Fox News in 2017, and he became a US citizen in 2021.[5] He describes his life in California as attaining the true American Dream, expressing a deep love for our state.[6] On his Fox News show, The Next Revolution, he often described California as the “warning to America”, arguing that its policies on homelessness, regulation, and taxes show what happens when progressive governance goes unchecked.
His campaign slogan is to Make California Golden Again, and his policies focus on the core areas that our state is failing in. Listen to a few of them (all cited from Steve Hilton for Governor):[7]
Economy
When it comes to the economy, he points out that our current Democratic leaders like to boast about California being the fifth largest economy while over a third of Californians can’t afford basic necessities to live here. He wants to change the business environment in California to reduce regulation and encourage growth that will provide more jobs to Californians. Alongside that, he also wants to cut the tax burden on everyday residents by implementing no state taxes on income under $100,000 and a flat tax on earnings over that. Then, because we would be bringing in less income, he would also look to lower the spending in our state. He points out that over $80 billion dollars of last year’s budget was wasted on just three programs with no results, showing there is a lot that can be cut out of our annual budget to lower spending and stop wasting taxpayer money.
Housing
What about the cost of housing? Hilton hits on one of the main points of the American dream being to own a single-family home where you can raise your kids and play in a yard – which sounds so amazing to me! To help bring down the cost of housing in our state, Hilton proposes reducing the housing regulations I have mentioned so many times on this show, stopping lawsuit abuse like is used with regard to CEQA that drags out the process of new developments, and ending the war on single-family homes across our state.
Education
Beyond the economy and housing, Hilton also addresses the crisis that is education in our state. He points out that our failing education system is not a lack of government spending, as is so often touted by liberals, because public education receives nearly 40% of the annual budget. Instead, he cites the low standards for both teachers and students, as well as the focus on ideology over excellence. He proposes grading schools and teachers in order to reward successful ones and reform failing ones, enforcing more transparency in education spending, and expanding charter schools and school choice across the state.
Parental Rights
Which then brings us to parental rights, because California currently has laws that protect and empower educators to withhold information from parents. But Hilton affirms that, “laws and regulations work best when they are designed for the vast majority of people who do the right thing, versus the tiny minority who don’t.” Meaning that parental rights ought to be protected instead of stripping them away from all parents because of the minority situation where educators need to step in.
Crime
And lastly, Hilton of course supported Proposition 36 when it comes to crime, and wants to see it further enforced and funded across our state. He commits to supporting law enforcement and pursuing policies that will ensure criminals are caught, prosecuted, and convicted.
The overall message of Hilton’s campaign is that he believes that all Californians, regardless of whether you’re liberal or conservative, are aware of the severe decline around them and would like to see the problems that affect their lives actually fixed. In his campaign announcement he put it this way, “I think people are desperate for change, and I want to be the candidate that is clearly out there arguing for the positive, practical changes we need, and it's really not partisan.”[8] He wants to be the candidate for positive change for all Californians.
And apparently, the polls are showing that voters like this. But it isn’t just this one poll alone about the candidates for Governor that affirm this. There have been broader trends across our nation and specifically in our state that are promising for conservatives like Steven Hilton.
Rising Conservative Sentiment
On a national level, a Reuters/Ipsos poll from late September of this year revealed that voters have more confidence in Republicans than Democrats on a wide variety of topics.[9] For example, Republicans ranked higher on issues like crime, immigration, foreign policy, the economy, gun control, and even corruption and political extremism! The only categories that Democrats were ranked significantly higher in were healthcare, women’s rights – meaning abortion, and the environment;[10] which would make sense, given conservatives generally view healthcare as a commodity rather than a right, abortion as murder, and environmentalism as radical climate extremism. But these findings are huge – because the feeling of voters across the country, regardless of what the mainstream media is saying about Trump, the feeling is that the Republican party and therefore the Trump Administration is actually more equipped to do a better job at handling all the main topics that they as Americans care about. That’s just the reality. And that reality bleeds into California because California is in the United States.
The way that we are seeing this infuse itself into California politics is in voter registration. As of September 5th of this year, Republicans have registered over 48,000 new voters in California; Democrats have registered just over 100.[11] That speaks volumes. For decades, California has been written off as a one-party state, where the Democratic machine dominated. But this new registration surge signals a shift in political energy. The appetite for change is no longer isolated to conservative pockets of the state like rural areas; it’s beginning to take root in communities long assumed to be safely blue, even in major cities. Republicans haven’t seen momentum like this in years! It’s about a growing sense among everyday Californians that something is deeply broken in how this state is being run, and they want change that should not be partisan. Parental rights should not be partisan, successful education should not be partisan, lowering crime should not be partisan, lowering costs of living and housing should not be partisan – these are objective ideas that can be agreed upon across party lines, and residents of our state should be fed up with them being ignored by the Democrats in power who have to fight conservatives so hard on every issue that they run the state directly into the ground.
Plus, not only is it just voter registration that is showing this sentiment to be true, but there has also been a shift in party preference in California ahead of the special election this November. The breakdown of political party preference stands at 45% Democrat, 25% Republican, 23% No Party Preference, and 7% Other. [12] Now, let me explain why this is positive for conservatives. Even though Democrats are still the majority, when you combine the Republican party and No Party Preference percentages, those two groups combined are GREATER than Democrats.
So that begs the question, what is no party preference? Well, this group has been described as “GOP Lite.” Basically, think of the voter block who are more traditional Democrats – generally socially liberal but frustrated with the party politics that I just described and hoenst about the issues facing our state. They might be tired of the heavy tax burden in our state compared even to other liberal states, they too want to see crime around them decrease and the homelessness issue actually be addressed, and skeptical of government regulation. Basically, on economics they are more conservative, on social issues they are more liberal, and overall, they are distrusting of political elites and bureaucracy.
This group is very similar to what we have seen in the Trump Administration – I mean I think of something like RFK Jr., who was traditionally a Democrat and who would lean more liberal than I personally do, but who is fed up with the left-wing extremism that ignores facts, data, and the reality of decline across our country. Or I think of Joe Rogan, who again is not a conservative by any means, but who could be honest about the failures of our government under Biden and the hope that a Trump Administration offered to address real problems with factually rooted solutions.
These voters are now the swing block in our state. If enough of them are tired of the direction that liberals have been pulling our state in and want to try something different, they could swing the vote in 2026 to be for a conservative candidate – especially toward a candidate like Hilton who is clear on policy, who wants to build bridges across the political aisle, and who quite frankly just knows what he’s talking about.
LET’S GET ENERGIZED
So, with all of that said, now is the moment! This is the closest we have ever been in California to moving toward more conservative policies and values through the potential support of a Republican candidate, and we absolutely cannot let it pass apathetically!
Right now we aren’t guaranteed a red wave. These hints of change are being described as a trickle, with one commentator saying:
“…this current trend, seemingly away from Democrats and toward Republicans, I would nonetheless be very surprised if this current trend was, anything other than a temporary shift, with a reversal and return back to, ultimately reflect ongoing support for Democratic candidates and their policies, in California and elsewhere, especially going forward toward the 2026 midterm elections."[13]
We need to prove this wrong and keep the trend moving toward conservatives and away from the liberal policies that have destroyed our state. We don’t want a red trickle; we want a red WAVE! We want to make real and effective change here in California, and one of the most powerful ways to do that is to elect leaders who will provide that!
This means that we HAVE TO keep voter registration and voter turnout up! If you’re a college student – commit to either joining or starting a TPUSA chapter on your campus and start registering conservative young people! We need to keep helping more and more conservatives who are apathetic toward voting in California realize that their voice matters, and their voice can implement the changes we want to see.
Republicans also NEED to consolidate support. We cannot have our voters split between multiple candidates, it will just sink us in the primaries, and we will be stuck with two Democrat candidates. Now, this isn’t necessarily crucial at this moment, we are still feeling out who can garner the most support and energize the base, but by next year we need to call on the Republicans in the race to work together to get ALL conservative and no party preference votes. Let’s keep an eye on who is doing best in the polls and be ready to go all in on them – regardless of your affinity toward one candidate.
And the most important thing is to vote. No matter if you think it matters or not, you need to vote. Do you know how you can get started today? You can and should VOTE NO ON PROPOSITION 50 in this special election! We will talk about all the details of that next week, so I’ll see you back here then.
References:
[1] Walters, Dan. “Videos Could Tank Katie Porter’S Bid to Become California’S Next Governor,” CalMatters, October 15, 2025, https://calmatters.org/commentary/2025/10/katie-porter-california-governor-bid/.
[2] Holden, Lindsey. “Katie Porter: ‘I Could Have Handled Things Better’ in Viral Videos.” Politico, October 14, 2025. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/14/katie-porter-apology-00608606?experience_id=EXYF89KVT5UQ&is_magic_link=true&template_id=OTJIR2CRKUD6&template_variant_id=OTV632IE7RALS.
[3] Plummer, Kate. “Katie Porter’s Chances of Winning California Governor Election Suffer Blow.” Newsweek, October 8, 2025. https://www.newsweek.com/katie-porters-chances-of-winning-california-governor-election-suffer-blow-10845001.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Padilla, Cecilio. “Steve Hilton, Former Fox News Personality, Announces Run for California Governor.” CBS News, April 21, 2025. https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/steve-hilton-fox-news-california-governor-2026/.
[6] Steve Hilton for Governor | Official Campaign Site. “Meet Steve Hilton | Proven Leadership & Public Service,” n.d. https://stevehiltonforgovernor.com/meet-steve-hilton/.
[7] Steve Hilton for Governor | Official Campaign Site. “Steve Hilton for California Governor | Official Campaign Site,” September 9, 2025. https://stevehiltonforgovernor.com/#vision.
[8] Zavala, Ashley. “Republican Steve Hilton Tells KCRA 3 His Campaign for California Governor Is ‘non-partisan,’” KCRA, April 26, 2025, https://www.kcra.com/article/republican-steve-hilton-california-governor-candidate-interview/64593914.
[9] Nava, Victor. “GOP Has ‘Better Plan’ on Economy, Immigration, Crime and More in Brutal Poll for Dems.” New York Post, September 25, 2025. https://nypost.com/2025/09/25/us-news/gop-has-better-plan-on-economy-immigration-crime-and-more-in-brutal-poll-for-dems/.
[10] Ibid.
[11] U.S. Census data and California Secretary of State. “VOTER REGISTRATION STATISTICS FOR 60-DAY CLOSE FOR THE STATEWIDE SPECIAL ELECTION,” September 5, 2025. https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/60day-special-2025/historical-reg-stats.pdf.
[12] Zavala, Ashley. “Ahead of Special Election, California Sees Shifts in Party Preference | California Politics 360.” KCRA, October 6, 2025. https://www.kcra.com/article/california-shifts-party-preference-california-politics-360/68819902.
[13] Plummer, “Katie Porter’s Chances of Winning California Governor Election Suffer Blow.”
