The Divide in California Democrats: Inside the Governor’s Race

The polls are shifting on California’s race for Governor as we inch closer and closer to the June primary election. With the massive news of Eric Swalwell’s disgraceful exit from the race, and President Trump’s recent endorsement of Republican candidate Steve Hilton – changes have been happening to voter sentiment. Candidates with low polling have dropped out, others have gained more traction in the past few weeks. Among all the changes happening, the Democratic Party in California is beginning to split into two very different directions.

One side is doubling down on the radical liberal approach to California politics. The other is trying to reframe the conversation entirely, shifting toward pragmatism, efficiency, and a focus on whether government is delivering results for people. Those two directions are now playing out in real time through two very different candidates: Tom Steyer and Matt Mahan.

CA Governor’s Race Updates

Because no candidate is breaking away from the pack, even small shifts in support can completely reshape who makes it to the election in November. That’s what makes this moment so important, and why some candidates who weren’t serious contenders a few weeks ago suddenly are. 

Let’s start with a few updates on where the Governor’s Race currently stands. The polls are all over the place. It really depends on where you look and on what day. BUT the basic sentiment is that Republican candidate Steve Hilton is a consistent frontrunner. The most recent polling shows him tied for first place with 18% of the votes.[1] Hilton has been in the lead since announcing his campaign, and President Trump endorsed him at the beginning of April,[2] which only helped to boost his support further.

What is more surprising is the Democrats who have gained momentum over the past several weeks. Since Eric Swalwell left the race, Xavier Beccera has actually pulled quite a bit ahead from where he was previously. I covered Becerra fairly extensively a few weeks ago, so if you want to know more about his policies or his background, you should go back and listen to my episode on the 5 Worst Candidates for California Governor – but essentially his appeal lies in the fact he has extensive government experience, and apparently voters are finding that to be a priority in this race. Even though his experience was a complete and utter failure…but I digress. He is currently tied with Hilton,[3] although some polls have shown him pulling ahead and others show him slightly behind - so it’s not super clear if he's in the number one spot, but he is significantly up from the single digits he was polling just three weeks ago.

Overall, pretty much every serious contender in this race is polling somewhere between 10 and 20 percent, and the numbers change depending on where you look. This basically means that it’s anyone’s game and there isn’t a clear frontrunner for the Democrats, even though California is – by majority – Democrat. If you look at it positively, this means there is a strong chance we will have a Republican on the November ballot! But from the other perspective – negative, or realist, whichever you prefer to call it – it also means there is a chance we could have no Republican on the ballot. It’s hard to say right now, and I personally would feel much more comfortable if Hilton and Bianco were both polling higher than their Democrat opponents.

The candidates who benefit most from this kind of jungle primary aren’t necessarily the most popular, but are the ones positioned to quietly consolidate support in a rapidly shifting landscape. There are two names fit that description right now: Tom Steyer and Matt Mahan. They each represent a totally different type of Democrat candidate, but we need to understand why neither will actually fix California.

The Billionaire Governor

Tom Steyer joined the race in November of last year, and he had originally been polling fairly low. As of this week, he stands somewhere around 12%,[4] signaling his support has grown as the race has shifted. Steyer represents the progressive, activist wing of the Democrat party. He’s a billionaire investor, longtime Democratic donor, and he even ran for President back in 2020.

His platform leans heavily into big, familiar Democratic priorities – especially climate policy, economic inequality, and expanding opportunity. He’s been one of the most vocal advocates for aggressive climate action, and that’s been a defining part of his political identity for years.[5] He supports pretty much every radical left-wing policy – from raising the minimum wage to supporting abortion to enacting gun control legislation and even pursuing universal healthcare in California.[6] He has opposed President Trump’s immigration stances and has donated money to groups helping immigrants who are facing deportation. So, all in all, he is not just a classic Democrat – but a very liberal, radical one, and I don’t at all see how his plan for governing our state would solve many of the problems that are a direct result of the very policies he advocates for already being in place here.

This side of the Democrat party is dangerous. Dangerous because they act like they are coming in to do good, to make change, and to lead our state – but they make the problems worse. Take for instance the fact that cost of living is the number one issue on the minds of California voters, according to a recent study done by the Public Policy Institute of California.[7] One in three Californians say fixing the economy and inflation should be the main priority of our Governor. What would Tom Steyer do about it? Well, he wants the Billionaire Tax to pass in this election.[8] But essentially, this tax would hurt our economy because it is a temporary, and detrimental, “solution” to a problem perpetuated by out-of-control spending. Add to that the fact that it will drive away businesses and wealthy residents of our state who pay the most in taxes, and you see that one of his main policy positions to “help” our economy will kneecap it entirely.

Not only that, but he wants to raise taxes on large corporations and raise their property taxes. But basic economics teaches us that even if the policy is aimed at large corporations, the downstream effects don’t stay contained. Higher costs will trickle down to consumers and thus increase the overall cost of living – as well as incentivize corporations to flee our state, stifling our economic growth, and shrinking our state’s tax base. And as I mentioned before, he wants to enact single-payer healthcare[9] – a program that would cost an additional $400 billion per year.[10] Now, call me crazy, but the fact that California is in a budget deficit for the fourth year in a row, signals that we should be reducing the state budget, not increasing it.

The point is that Steyer can say all he wants that he will focus on affordability and on fixing our state, but his openly stated policies – the very legislation he would focus on and enact as our Governor – will run our state into the ground. He is no different from many of his Democrat candidate counterparts – Katie Porter and Xavier Beccera included. They represent the worst of the Democrat Party, and we cannot allow them to gain power in our state. They will destroy it.

The “Back to Basics” Governor

On the other hand, there is a wing of the Democrat party that is embracing pragmatism, centrism, and a return to common sense values. This side of Democrats is best exemplified in candidate Matt Mahan, who is currently polling with around 7% of the votes.[11]

Matt Mahan is the current mayor of San Jose, elected in 2022, and while he is a Democrat, he has taken some specific policy positions during his time in office that have gained him popularity, especially in moderate circles. Mahan comes from a tech background, meaning that he has strong ties to the Silicon Valley business landscape, and his wedge issue in office has been addressing San Jose’s homelessness crisis.[12]

He has not been afraid to call out current and potential leaders who are not focused on that goal. Mahan has spoken out against current Governor Gavin Newsom’s adversarial style against President Trump, saying “We don’t just need to be against something. We need to be for something – a government that proves it can solve problems for working people again.”[13] This is starkly different from his Democrat opponents who have focused many of their campaigns solely on opposing Trump at every turn. He said about Newsom that his frequent social media criticism of the President has gone “beyond taking on the excesses and abuses of the Trump administration and begins disparaging businesses merely for expressing concerns over very real problems of crime, homelessness, and overregulation.”[14]

This is the first way Mahan represents a totally different side of the Democrat Party. In effect, he is saying we need to focus on the real problems expressed by residents of California, and not mock or belittle their concerns all under the umbrella of “MAGA conservatism.” This is super appealing to less-radical, more moderate-leaning Democrats and Independents. It’s even appealing to conservatives – I completely agree that our leaders should not make light of the real challenges that exist in California, especially when those challenges have been largely self-created and self-perpetuated.

But he doesn’t stop there. What are the main issues he is focused on fixing? His campaign speaks to reducing homelessness, cutting government spending, and promoting safety and affordability. He has positioned himself as the “back to basics” governor, emphasizing a style of leaders focused on results over ideology.[15] One example of this type of governance is his idea to perform a California Performance Review. This would involve reviewing all of California’s state agencies with the help and insight of their employees to root out and get rid of waste. Which, I strongly believe any Governor should absolutely do while in office. He has also proposed tying raises for government officials to measurable outcomes, saying, “People in the real world don’t get raises if they don’t do a good job and I think it should be the same for the politicians and senior administrators who are allocating budgets, leading projects, making the big decisions on behalf of the people of California.”[16] And of course we cannot forget that in the 2024 election, he fully supported Proposition 36 – which was passed by voters to increase certain theft and drug crimes back up from misdemeanors to felonies.

These stances have already proven effective in his time as mayor. Mahan’s leadership of San Jose thus far has reduced crime and homelessness – both essentially building blocks to his campaign. Violent crime in 2025 reduced by 15% as compared to 2024, and Mahan largely contributes that to investments in new tech advancements to assist policing, as well as a general support of police, including a new police unit he proposed specifically to oversee homeless encampments across the city.[17] Additionally, homelessness was down by 10% in 2025 as compared to 2023,[18] attributed to Mahan’s efforts to support policing of homeless encampments, enacting mandatory drug treatment for addicts, and prioritizing temporary housing over building permanent, affordable housing at the expense of the state.[19]

So, this is a different wing of Democrats. Mahan mirrors the pragmatic approach of the mayor of San Francisco, who I covered last week. And that is appealing to many voters in California who are historically liberal, but who have not been happy with the radical direction our state has been moving and want to pull back on more commonsense issues – like crime and government spending. This is a shift back toward the world of reality, to say there are certain issues that are not partisan and that a good leader will work with people across the aisle to fix. Mahan walks the walk in terms of his willingness to break from the more radical Democrat positions based on evidence for what will practically make things better, and what will not.

But even while this is great, and so much better than a candidate like Steyer, it is important to call out that Mahan is by no means a conservative, and that ultimately, he is still not our best choice for California Governor. Mahan told the San Jose Spotlight, “My politics are not center right. I’m a lifelong Democrat who…has volunteered on most Democratic presidential campaigns and I hold progressive views on a range of issues from taxation and climate change to LGBTQ rights.”[20] He also claims to agree with many of Gavin Newsom’s policy positions, he just takes issue with his approach. He is pro-choice and supports taxpayer funded abortion.[21] He does not believe local authorities should cooperate with federal immigration authorities and supported the bill to unmask ICE.[22] More than anything, Mahan is a mixed bag.

When given the option between Mahan and Steyer, I wholeheartedly agree Mahan is leagues better for our state. But those two candidates are not our only choice today. I take issue with some of Mahan’s core beliefs – beliefs that lead him to still align with a party that doesn’t know the difference between men and women, and that has run our state into the ground. And that’s where I think it’s important not to confuse “better” with “best.”

Because the real question voters have to ask for the primary is not just who can manage California more effectively, but who is willing to completely change the core ideas and policies that got the state to where it is in the first place. On that question, Mahan has made strides, but he still falls short.

Is California Ready to Change?

When we look at how close the polls are and how fragmented the field is, it becomes clear that this election is not going to be decided by overwhelming support for one candidate. It’s going to be decided by small shifts, by consolidation of support. And that’s what makes candidates like Tom Steyer and Matt Mahan so important to watch.

They represent two very different directions for the Democratic Party in California – one doubling down on the policies that have already shaped this state, and one attempting to course-correct without fully breaking from them. But here’s the bottom line: California doesn’t just need a better version of the same ideas. It doesn’t just need someone who can manage decline more efficiently or soften the edges of policies that have already proven not to work. It needs a fundamental shift in direction. The issues that we are facing right now – cost of living, crime, homelessness – these are not random. They are the direct result of years of policy decisions. And if those underlying ideas don’t change, then the outcomes won’t either.

As we approach June, we need to continually be evaluating who is willing to take California in a different direction! Because this race is about whether California is willing to change, and whether voters are ready to demand it.

References:

[1] Huh, Jenny. “California Governor Race Tightens as Undecided Voters Decline.” Abc10.Com, May 5, 2026. https://www.abc10.com/article/news/politics/california-governor-race-tightens-as-undecided-voters-decline/103-26919d68-e543-4d24-a8b0-e607cbc569e0.

[2] Jones, Blake. “Trump Endorses Steve Hilton in California Governor’s Race,” Politico, April 6, 2026, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/06/trump-endorses-steve-hilton-in-california-governors-race-00859470.

[3] Huh, “California Governor Race Tightens as Undecided Voters Decline.”

[4] Ibid.

[5] Von Kaenel, Camille. “Under Fire, Tom Steyer Leans Into His Climate Brand.” Politico, April 23, 2026. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/23/tom-steyer-climate-progressive-voters-00889698.

[6] Vinopal, Courtney. “What Does Tom Steyer Believe? Where the Candidate Stands on 6 Issues.” PBS News, July 10, 2019. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-does-tom-steyer-believe-where-the-candidate-stands-on-6-issues.

[7] Baldassare, Mark, Dean Bonner, Lauren Mora, and Deja Thomas. “PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government.” The Public Policy Institute of California, February 2026. https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-february-2026/.

[8] Helen Jeong, “Tom Steyer: What to Know About CA Gubernatorial Candidate,” NBC Los Angeles, May 1, 2026, https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/who-is-tom-steyer-california-governor-race-election/3883007/.

[9] Ibid.

[10] Kuang, Jeanne. “For California Democrats, Single-payer Health Care Is Back. Voters Have Heard It Before.” CalMatters, March 6, 2026. https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/03/california-governor-single-payer-health-care/.

[11] Sosa, Anabel. “Democratic and Republican Candidates for Calif. Governor Lead Latest Poll.” SF Gate, May 4, 2026. https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/calif-governor-race-poll-22240696.php.

[12] Kuang, Jeanne. “San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan Enters Governor’s Race as Newsom Critic.” CalMatters, January 29, 2026. https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/01/governors-race-matt-mahan/.

[13] Larson, Amy. “Matt Mahan Explains Why He Decided to Run for California Governor.” Yahoo News, January 29, 2026. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/matt-mahan-explains-why-decided-185750635.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABFKYIFWf9HaNoDxQaYHwKNbjWkrIxyFMv7dfo320Ik8h77m8vLQOzKAt4eYw_5JScxYWOqMEnMfINm3ym_DYH7EHCxmaSnnx6VI8ul97SO6zcez453LSDC-ZwiRm6JyDpE6DnUDAO3LuSfs2ojoIZbnSFTGF-eixMCZkqEN-Ydq.

[14] Kuang, “San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan Enters Governor’s Race as Newsom Critic,” January 29, 2026.

[15] Nixon, Nicole. “California Governor Candidate Matt Mahan Unveils Government Reform Plan - Los Angeles Times.” Los Angeles Times, March 24, 2026. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-03-24/california-governor-candidate-matt-mahan-unveils-government-reform-plan.

[16] Ibid.

[17] Menconi, Keith. “Reported Crime in San Jose Fell in 2025, New FBI Report Shows.” NBC Bay Area, January 20, 2026. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-jose-crime-2025/4017383/.

[18] Moran, Jocelyn. “San Jose Mayor Addresses Homelessness After Newsom’s State of the State Speech.” NBC Bay Area, January 9, 2026. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/sj-mayor-homelessness-state-of-the-state-speech/4010823/.

[19] Pho, Brandon. “Conservative Heads San Jose Mayor’S Governor Campaign.” San José Spotlight, February 19, 2026. https://sanjosespotlight.com/conservative-heads-san-jose-mayors-governor-campaign/.

[20] Ibid.

[21] Wolfe, Eli. “Democrats Denounce San Jose Candidate Over Controversial Endorsement.” San José Spotlight, June 8, 2022. https://sanjosespotlight.com/democrats-denounce-san-jose-mayor-candidate-councilmember-matt-mahan-over-controversial-endorsement-silicon-valley-association-republican-women-election-2022/.

[22] Jeong, Helen. “Matt Mahan: What to Know About CA Gubernatorial Candidate.” NBC Los Angeles, May 4, 2026. https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/matt-mahan-what-to-know-about-california-governor-candidate/3884556/.